Strains in the Alliance

West Europe is disturbed by U.S. unpredictability

After Israel and the Arab states, no nations were more dismayed by the Administration's mishandling of the U.N. vote than America's West European allies. Reason: there had already been strains in the alliance over the issue of how to answer Moscow's new threat in Central Asia. The Carter Administration feels that France in particular, and West Germany to a lesser degree, have been somewhat laggard in their response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In addition, Washington is concerned about a proposed West European initiative in the Security Council that could lead to a resolution on Palestinian self-determination. Such a move, American policymakers fear, could upset the Egyptian-Israeli negotiations on autonomy for the West Bank and Gaza.

The West Europeans, for their part, have become increasingly unnerved by Carter's unpredictable and seemingly capricious approach to foreign policy. Although fully briefed on the U.S.'s proposed response to the Soviet invasion, the West Germans were stung by the President's handling of the Olympic boycott. Administration officials had first told West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt that a boycott was not being considered. Carter changed his mind, and Bonn was given only two hours' notice before the boycott was announced. Said a West German diplomat of last week's Security Council debacle: "The U.N. flip-flop is just one more piece of evidence to support Schmidt's contention that West Europeans must look out for themselves, and protect themselves as much as possible against the effect of these Carter fiascoes."

Schmidt and French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing share Washington's view that the Soviets must withdraw their troops from Afghanistan. The two leaders also believe that Carter overreacted to the invasion, largely because of domestic political considerations. Bonn has tried to play down the transatlantic differences, stressing that they involve approach rather than objectives. Nonetheless, the result has been a closer relationship between Bonn and Paris, culminating in the Schmidt-Giscard summit in the French capital last month. As a Bonn official put it, both men "felt strongly that they had to protect Western Europe's interests." Said a French diplomat in West Germany: "The Soviets horribly miscalculated in Afghanistan. Carter reacted too rashly. Schmidt and Giscard are the fellows who are trying to keep a cool head."

During three hours of intense and candid talks last week, Schmidt and Carter--whose policy conflicts are made worse by their personality differences--tried to iron out their problems. Schmidt reassured Carter that Bonn will not undercut the U.S. grain embargo of the Soviet Union. Moreover, West Germany is ready to tighten its list of strategic goods prohibited for export to Communist countries, provided other alliance nations go along. As for the Olympics, Schmidt pledged that "we will do what our allies do." But he said he would not announce his decision until May 24, the registration deadline, on the off chance that the Soviets "might create conditions for the games to be conducted"--namely, by withdrawing from Afghanistan. Schmidt also argued that the U.S. is being far too confrontational in its responses and should show more flexibility.

Giscard, meanwhile, seized the opportunity of a ten-day trip to Kuwait, the Emirates of the Persian Gulf, and Jordan to get out in front on the Palestinian issue. In a joint French-Kuwaiti communique, Giscard for the first time officially endorsed "self-determination" as a Palestinian right--a code word for an independent state of Palestine. He later added that any new negotiations should include the Palestine Liberation Organization. The Giscard government, a spokesman explained, believes that the Egyptian-Israeli negotiations on autonomy for the Palestinians on the Israeli-occupied West Bank are at an impasse. The Paris hope is that the communique could serve as the basis for an alternative approach to Middle East peace talks, looking beyond the Camp David formula. Specifically, the French are considering a Europe-sponsored supplement to U.N. Resolution 242, which says that all countries in the Middle East have a right to exist in peace, but refers to the Palestinians only as refugees. Explained a French official: "If there were a vacuum at the moment when Camp David failed, the Arab world might have no choice but to fall into the Soviet camp. We think that they should not be forced to choose between the superpowers."

The British, who first proposed the 242 supplement, were angered at Giscard's decision to jump the gun on the Palestinian issue, but they support the supplement in substance. Says a senior British official: "The Palestinian situation cannot be allowed to fester for the rest of this year just because it's election time in the U.S." The Thatcher government is proud of its loyal support for the U.S. on Afghanistan, and thus was angered at American criticism of Foreign Minister Lord Carrington's initiative on both the Palestinian settlement and a neutralized Afghanistan.

Their neutralization proposal, Thatcher and Carrington contend, would test the Soviet claim that the invasion was purely a security measure. Explained a Carrington aide: "If the Russians said yes to a genuinely neutralized Afghanistan, that would be a big plus for the security of Southwest Asia and the oil-producing gulf. If they say no, they stand condemned before the whole world."

Another ally, Canada, was being bad-mouthed by some Administration officials in Washington last week for a 2 million-metric-ton grain sale to the Soviet Union. It was a bum rap. The sale was actually negotiated by the Canadian Wheat Board in consultation with the outgoing government of Tory Prime Minister Joe Clark, and announced several days before Pierre Trudeau's Liberal government took over. Officials in Ottawa pointed out that the sale was well within traditional limits and thus conforms to the policy that Canada has pledged to follow: refusing to take advantage of the embargo by filling shortfalls in U .S. shipments.

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