The Day of the Underdogs

The front runners lose in Pennsylvania--but are still in front

Four years ago, Jimmy Carter virtually clinched the Democratic presidential nomination by winning the Pennsylvania primary. Last week the state's Democrats took another look at him and, by a narrow 10,000-ballot margin, voted instead for Senator Edward Kennedy. At the same time, Ronald Reagan stumbled in Pennsylvania's Republican primary, losing the popular vote to former CIA Director George Bush by 54% to 45%. It was Bush's first major primary victory and, to him, the message was clear. Said he: "A lot of people are unhappy with those who are deemed to be the front runners."

Perhaps a lot are, but the victories gave the challengers little more than badly needed psychological boosts. Both Carter and Reagan still managed to finish the week by widening their margins in delegates. While Bush was taking the beauty contest, Reagan was picking off about 40 of Pennsylvania's 83 Republican delegates, who were also chosen in the election. In addition, he seemed to be leading in caucuses in Missouri and Vermont, giving him a projected total of 637, two-thirds of the number he needs for the nomination. Bush has about 126 delegates.

Kennedy's Pennsylvania victory gained him 93 delegates, compared with Carter's 92. Kennedy also appeared to have won six of the ten Vermont delegates and 71 of Michigan's 141 in last week's caucuses. But the President seemed assured of a large majority of the 77 Missouri delegates. This left Carter with 1,206 delegates, just 460 short of an estimated 1,666 he needs to win the nomination on the first ballot at the Democratic Convention in August. Kennedy is credited with 664 delegates.

Undaunted by the long odds against him, Kennedy plunged into Pennsylvania for 14 days of nonstop campaigning, from the urban East to the rural center to the steel mills of the West. He hammered away at Carter for mishandling the economy and conducting an uncertain foreign policy. Both turned out to be telling issues on primary day. A New York Times-CBS News survey of voters as they left the polls showed that people who supported Kennedy ranked jobs and inflation as the most important issues. Those concerns overwhelmed Chappaquiddick as an issue, despite a last-minute blitz of Carter TV spots in which Pennsylvanians asked questions about Kennedy's character.

Carter's aides professed not to be worried by the defeat. Said Press Secretary Jody Powell: "There is no scenario by which Kennedy can win the nomination." This is hotly denied by Kennedy aides, who have drafted a strategy that depends less on delegate totals than on persuading the party that the President cannot win in November. Kennedy aides are counting first on big primary victories in urban states like California, New Jersey and Ohio. At the same time, they are making a concerted effort to recruit delegates nominally committed to Carter, arguing that the Administration's economic and foreign policy blunders are fatally weakening him as a candidate. The Kennedy strategists believe that by convention time they will pick up enough support to force a change in the rules so that wavering Carter delegates will not be required to vote for the President on the first ballot. This in turn will lead to a deadlock and, finally after several ballots and some back-room haggling, a Kennedy nomination. To many Democrats the strategy sounds improbable; indeed, it has been disavowed even by Kennedy. But the Carter camp is taking no chances. Aides now are checking the backgrounds of all of his delegates, looking for potential defectors to Kennedy. Under the party's rules, they can be replaced with Carter stalwarts before the convention.

George Bush is likewise counting on a last-minute delegate stampede into his camp. Says he: "I understand herd instincts." Bush's strategy is to outcampaign and outspend the front runner in key industrial states, just as he did in Pennsylvania, where he stumped for 14 days and spent nearly $1 million, vs. four days and $100,000 by Reagan. Bush figures that he can spend six times more than Reagan on politicking in the remaining contests because the Californian has already come closer to the $17 million federal limit on primary spending than Bush.

In Pennsylvania, Bush made effective use of a slick media campaign, including four well-received "Ask George Bush" telecasts, in which he fielded questions from live audiences and sought to spell out his differences from Reagan on key issues. In reality, those differences are few. A gentlemanly postprimary TV debate in Houston revealed almost no basic disagreements between the candidates apart from the proposed Kemp-Roth 30% tax cut, which Reagan supports and Bush opposes as foolhardy and inflationary.

Unperturbed by Bush's victory, Reagan blithely predicted for the first time: "I think I will win the nomination." Indeed, perhaps the most important political decision now facing him is his choice for Vice President. Party strategists believe that to win in November, he must pick a moderate who has experience in Washington, understands international affairs and can attract votes from independents and Democrats. Reagan aides say that Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, who gets along well with the former Governor, is "an obvious good choice."

The other prime contender is Bush, who in the view of one of his advisers "is in better shape with the true believers of the right than Howard Baker," because of Baker's vote for the Panama Canal treaties. Bush, who on Pennsylvania primary day was wearing gold cuff links bearing the vice-presidential seal (a gift from Nelson Rockefeller), has repeatedly brushed aside suggestions that he would settle for the No. 2 spot. Says he: "No way." But a close aide says that Bush might be willing to join the Reagan ticket in the end because of the Californian's age.

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