Reagan: Looking Better

By John F. Stacks

A TIME poll shows his stock rising after a winter slump

Public support for President Reagan, which tailed off dramatically earlier this year, has rebounded slightly over the past three months. He has managed to stanch the loss of confidence in his ability to provide leadership, manage the economy and conduct foreign affairs since early spring, when a clear majority of Americans said they hoped Reagan would not seek a second term in office. Now as many people hope Reagan will run again as hope he will leave office in 1984.

These are among the findings of a public opinion survey conducted this month for TIME by the research firm Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc.* As has been the case throughout his presidency, it is Reagan's personal appeal and not his policies that accounts for the bulk of his popularity. But lately, the poll shows, he is thought to be doing somewhat better on the job. This perception apparently stems from the exposure he got on his trip abroad and his overtures to the Soviet Union about starting disarmament talks. The President has also worked hard in recent months to shore up his support among conservatives at home.

The question about a possible second term is a good guide to Reagan's overall popularity, since it forces voters to weigh conflicting feelings about his performance and personality. In March 52% of those polled did not want Reagan to run again, while only 37% supported another bid for office. Now the country is evenly split, with 41% opposing a re-election try and 40% favoring the idea. Of those supporting another campaign, nearly half (49%) said admiration for Reagan personally was very important in their decision. Nearly the same number (48%) said he has the right personality for the job. Only 37% cited his policies. A huge majority (75%) of those polled agreed with the statements that "Reagan is a man of principle" and that "he knows what is right and sticks by his guns."

At the same time, the poll provided strong evidence that the American public might look favorably on any incumbent President right now. Of those supporting a second Reagan term, for example, 64% said the country "really needs a second-term President after all the turnover we have had in the past 20 years."

Reagan's policy goals, though not necessarily the way he tries to achieve them, are widely shared by the American public. Fully 70% said Reagan has the right idea in trying to decrease the cost of Government. Another 80% said he has "made a good start" on improving America's defense capabilities; 50% feel Reagan will eventually prove more effective than his predecessors in negotiating an arms-control agreement with the Soviets.

Confidence in Reagan's presidency has also increased slightly, as measured by the poll results. In March 51% said they were not sure Reagan was a leader they could trust; that figure has now declined to 45%. Three months ago, 28% said they had no real confidence in his ability to manage the economy; 22% feel that way now. Doubts about his competence in foreign affairs were reported by 31% of those questioned in March. The current poll, taken while Reagan was touring Europe, shows this figure dropping to 20%.

Although the latest poll was good news for the President, the responses of those opposing a second term revealed soft spots in his political armor. For example, 42% of this group said that "his program on the economy has been a failure." Some 40% are concerned that "he's likely to lead us into war." Nevertheless, 55% endorse his firmness toward the Soviet Union. A mere 16% say they do not like him as an individual.

On most issues, Reagan still ranks lower with women than with men by about 10%. And his presidency is still perceived as favoring upper-income groups: 55% agreed with the statement that "Reagan represents the interests of the rich rather than of the average American like myself." According to 57% of the sample, Reagan has not done well in "reducing the unfairness in American life."

Public opinion polls have for years measured a powerful desire on the part of the American people for a strong leader in the White House, a feeling that helped bring Reagan to office. Yet the most recent Yankelovich survey found half of those questioned disagreed with the statement that "Reagan is a strong leader who has the situation under control." More than half the voters (54%) see Reagan as often getting his facts and figures wrong in public statements; 51% are critical of his progress toward fulfilling his campaign pledge to balance the federal budget. Reagan, however, has escaped blame for the delays in formulating a 1983 budget: 55% pointed an accusing finger toward Capitol Hill, while only 20% faulted him.

On a scale of 1 (poor) to 10 (excellent), the Reagan presidency received an average score of 5.64 in the Yankelovich poll. He got slightly higher marks in the South and West than he did in the Midwest and Northeast. Men rated him at 6, while women ranked him at 5.31. He scored 1.1 points higher (6.2) among voters earning more than $30,000 a year than he did among those with incomes under $15,000. Exactly half the voters gave Reagan a score between 6 and 10.

Aside from their perceptions of the President, American voters find little to cheer about in the condition of the country. Seventy percent said the state of the nation is poor, which is marginally more pessimistic than the 68% response at the same point in Jimmy Carter's presidency. Almost 60% said they felt things are going badly or very badly in the country right now.

Somewhat surprisingly, more people (46%) are worried about inflation than about unemployment (38%). They are unimpressed by the slowing of the annual rate of inflation to less than 1% in the past three months, from a high of 17.3% in early 1980. Some 52% said the decline was not worth the unemployment and economic stagnation that have come with it.

Promises of economic recovery do not make much of an impression either. Some 26% expect the recession to continue through 1982; an additional 56% said they believed it would last through 1983. Fifty-five percent said they had "a lot" of concern about possible reductions in Social Security. Nearly a third said they were fearful of losing their jobs because of economic stringency. Almost half (46%) said they were very worried about high home mortgage rates; 47% expressed similar concerns about the cost of new automobiles.

Asked to state their intentions regarding the congressional elections in November, 43% of the respondents said they now plan to vote for the Democratic candidates; 35% said they intend to vote for the Republicans.

This preference was hardly enthusiastic. Clear majorities of the voters saw no difference between the two parties in their ability to handle the economy and foreign affairs, provide national leadership or even avoid nuclear war. On two questions, however, there was a strong public perception of differences between the two parties. Democrats were rated superior in helping the needy poor and older people. Republicans rated much higher than Democrats in "making sure the country is able to defend itself."

This is hardly encouraging news for the G.O.P. as it prepares for the November elections. The public is sour and skeptical, and what limited hopes it has are plainly invested in Reagan himself. The big question now is how long the President can fly above the dark clouds without crashing. --By John F. Stacks

*The survey polled 1,010 registered voters by telephone between June 8 and 10. The sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When the results of this study are compared with previous TIME-Yankelovich polls, the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.

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