The G.O.P.? Wait Till '88

Among Republicans, speculation about female vice-presidential nominees is purely that, since George Bush is not about to be nudged off the ticket. The Republicans, however, might have more to gain from having a woman on their ticket, since it is Ronald Reagan who is struggling to close the gender gap. Moreover, the Republicans might have an easier time picking a top-drawer female candidate. "We would be in a better a position than the Democrats," says Kansas Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum, 51, who heads the list of her party's female vice-presidential prospects, "because we have more qualified women."

Certainly the G.O.P. has more nationally prominent women. Among the most well-known names: Transportation Secretary Elizabeth ("Liddy") Hanford Dole, 47; Health and Human Services Secretary Margaret Heckler, 52; Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 54; and Anne Armstrong, 56, former Ambassador to Britain. The only other woman in the Senate besides Kassebaum is also a Republican, Florida's Paula Hawkins, 57. Although she has always been a registered Democrat, United Nations Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, 57, has become an honorary Republican with her highly visible, aggressively anti-Communist role in the Reagan Administration.

Why does the G.O.P. seem to have so many certifiably solid prospects? An important reason is that the Republicans have controlled White House patronage for all but four years since 1968. Dole and Heckler, for example, owe much of their present prominence to Cabinet positions, and O'Connor would probably still be an Arizona Court of Appeals judge if not for the 1980 Republican victory. Even before feminism took hold, the G.O.P. had a large core of female party activists ready to step into high-profile posts. In part this was a function of demographics: Waspy, well-to-do women tended to be Republicans, and often had the free time and volunteerist spirit to delve into party politics. A generation of such women has now matured. But the G.O.P. is likely to lose this edge soon: the Democrats have more young up-and-comers around the country.

Among the five Republican stars, Kassebaum, O'Connor and Armstrong came closest to leading conventional homemakers' lives during the 1950s and '60s. Heckler and Dole have always held paying jobs, the former member of Congress from 1967 until last year, the latter a fast- track Washington bureaucrat under every President since Kennedy. The resume's of all the women overlap in several places. All but Heckler grew up well-to-do in the South or West; all but Armstrong have postgraduate degrees. Dole was a Democrat in the 1960s; Armstrong campaigned for Harry Truman. Three are lawyers (O'Connor, Heckler, Dole), and three have lived on farms or ranches (O'Connor, Kassebaum, Armstrong).

Given the chance, Reagan probably would not choose to run with a woman. Certainly, his counselors would not point him in that direction. Says one campaign strategist: "When you look at who would be advising the President about potential running mates, you have to conclude that a woman wouldn't be near the top of the short list." A former White House aide thinks the problem is endemic. "Old habits and ingrained ideas die very hard," she says of the Reaganites. "With the present structure, you wouldn't see them going out and beating the bushes for a woman."

But what about Bush and a woman in 1988? "I could easily see Bush picking a woman," says the Reagan campaign adviser. "Some of those close to Bush would encourage it. Next time could be it."