The Tin Kazoo

By James Kelly

A campaign without suspense

For Daniel Ortega Saavedra, the day began with a two-hour drive from Managua, the capital, to the ranching town of Juigalpa. As the coordinator of Nicaragua's ruling junta, Ortega presided over a town meeting in the local movie theater. Then, as the Sandinista party candidate for President in the Nov. 4 elections, he led a parade of jubilant supporters through the town's narrow streets. Dressed in his customary army fatigues, Ortega acted like the seasoned politico, waving to onlookers, kissing babies and savoring the cheers of "De Frente! De Frente! Daniel por Presidente!" (Forward! Forward! Daniel for President!).

If Ortega seemed confident, he had good reason. By all accounts, the Sandinistas are expected to win the elections handily. No matter how great their victory at the polls, however, Ortega and his colleagues are not likely to accomplish their primary purpose in holding elections, which is to persuade critics at home and abroad that the Sandinista government legitimately represents the Nicaraguan people. What makes the vote especially suspect in U.S. eyes is the absence of a strong opponent to Ortega. Arturo Cruz Porras, a former member of the Sandinista junta, originally planned to head a ticket backed by the Coordinadora, an amalgam of opposition political parties, labor unions and businessmen. Cruz's supporters, however, demanded concessions from the Sandinistas, including a relaxation of press censorship. After several weeks of bargaining, the talks broke down. Though foreign diplomats in Managua agree that the Coordinadora could not have won the election, it stood a better chance than any of the six remaining opposition parties in the race. The Sandinistas' leading rival now is the Independent Liberal Party, which advocates a mixed economy at home and strict nonalignment. Some Nicaraguans view the Liberals, not the Coordinadora, as the true voice of democracy in the country, but others consider the party's presidential candidate, Virgilio Godoy Reyes, 50, a former Labor Minister, too close to the Sandinistas.

The government has lifted some campaign restrictions, including a ban on outdoor rallies, and ordered its two television stations to sell equal blocks of time to all parties. According to some Nicaraguans, however, the neighborhood Sandinista defense committees are becoming a problem. In the southern town of San Juan del Sur, "Rodrigo," 27, told TIME that his neighbors have been warned to vote for the Sandinistas or risk losing their food ration cards. "It's not a fear of repression, as in Somoza's times," says Domingo Sanchez Salgado, presidential candidate of the small Socialist party. "It is a fear of repercussions."

A far more dangerous threat is represented by the turbas (mobs). Early in the campaign, Cruz's car was stoned and his supporters were assaulted several times. Though Sandinista leaders publicly condemn the violence, the turbas are organized by middle-level party officials. In some cases, planners have even supplied municipal buses to transport crowds.

A major issue remains Nicaragua's economy. The inflation rate is about 25%, unemployment is high, and items ranging from aspirin to tires are in short supply. Another key issue is the military draft of all males over 16. The Sandinistas claim that fresh enlistees are needed to battle the contras, but the army already totals some 50,000, Central America's largest.

The Reagan Administration has not altered its opinion that the elections are rigged in the Sandinistas' favor. Senior U.S. officials also contend that the Nicaraguan government has alienated its West European supporters. "You couldn't name me an international leader who thinks highly of the Sandinistas," says a top State Department official. "They have squandered an extraordinary amount of good will." What counts most for the Sandinistas, however, is the level of good will at home, not abroad. If the election results do not promise to give a true picture of Sandinista support, perhaps the turnout will. Some Nicaraguans contend that after 44 years of right-wing dictatorship and five years of Marxist government, many of their country's 1.6 million registered voters are too apathetic to go to the polls at all. "Nicaraguans are concerned about where to get food and how to obtain peace," says a parish priest in Managua. "They simply don't believe anyone's promises at this point." --By James Kelly.

Reported by June Erlick and Janice C. Simpson/ Managua

With reporting by June Erlick, Janice C. Simpson/Managua