Basking in the Sunshine

By Susan Tifft

During the final heat, a TIME poll shows a G.O.P. romp

These are buoyant times for most Americans. And that translates into the commanding 24-point lead that Ronald Reagan holds over Walter Mondale in the latest nationwide poll conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly and White.* Of the 1,000 voters who were questioned by telephone over three days last week after the final presidential debate, 54% said they planned to vote for Reagan and George Bush, vs. only 30% for Mondale and his running mate Geraldine Ferraro. Some 15% were undecided. But when they were asked which way they were leaning and their answers were factored in, the pro-G.O.P. margin swelled to 26 points (59% for Reagan, 33% for Mondale).

Fueling the lopsided preference for Reagan is a surge of good feeling. A full 74% of respondents said that things in the country are going "very well or fairly well." The rating is an Olympian 48-point jump from January 1981, when Reagan took office, and the highest level recorded since Yankelovich began tracking the nation's mood in May 1974. The optimism is surprisingly broad based. Even among those with family incomes of less than $10,000, six out often say they are upbeat about the nation. So do 90% of those who earn more than $50,000 and 60% of registered Democrats.

Reagan leads Mondale in all regions of the country, at all age levels, among both women and men, Roman Catholics and Protestants, union and nonunion members and at all income levels except the very lowest. Indeed, Mondale has a clear edge in only two somewhat overlapping groups: blacks (who support him 70% to 12% over Reagan) and people earning $10,000 or less (who favor him 45% to 36%). Even among Democrats, Mondale commands a less than overwhelming majority (54%). Reagan, however, is the choice of 88% of Republicans and a full 63% of the critical independents.

Although Mondale strategists bravely talk of winning electorally rich Texas and California, Reagan's strongest leads are in the South (60% to 27%) and the West (59% to 30%). Since September, Mondale has improved slightly in the Northeast and Midwest but still trails Reagan by 10% and 22%, respectively. Mondale has also been unable to call home the traditionally Democratic labor vote. Among union households, Reagan now leads 46% to 38%, seven points more than his September margin.

Mondale's precedent-smashing selection of Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate has attracted fewer votes than the Democrats had hoped. As the novelty of the choice has worn off, so, it seems, has support. In terms of drawing votes for the Democrats, only 42% of respondents felt that Ferraro was an "excellent or good" choice for the national ticket, down from 48% in September and 64% in August. Among Democrats, a surprisingly high 47% said Ferraro was a "fair to poor" choice. Women of all political persuasions were more likely than men to view Ferraro as excellent.

Despite a faltering performance in the first presidential debate and some muddled facts in the second, Reagan is still perceived as the most capable man to wrestle with domestic and foreign policy issues. Voters judged him better able than Mondale to hold down inflation (67% to 24%), provide jobs for the unemployed (46% to 42%), whittle the federal deficit (48% to 32%), deal effectively with the Soviet Union (56% to 32%) and reduce the risk of nuclear war (45% to 38%).

Reagan was also considered better suited to maintain the proper relationship between religion and politics (45% to 35%) and to handle the issue of abortion (40% to 36%). Mondale is seen as a superior leader on only three issues: protecting the environment (48% to 37%), improving the status of women (61% to 24%) and helping the poor (59% to 30%).

On personal style, Reagan rated sky-high marks. Compared with Mondale, respondents viewed him as a better speaker (54% to 30%), better in times of crisis (60% to 25%), a more dynamic and exciting candidate (54% to 22%), better at making good appointments (49% to 33%) and more intelligent (38% to 29%). Some of these figures, however, show some slippage for Reagan, perhaps owing to September's terrorist bombing in Beirut, the disclosure of a CIA assassin's manual and an uneven showing in the debates. Since the Yankelovich survey in September, he has declined 15 points in his rating as a speaker, five points on being good in a crisis and nine points on being a dynamic candidate.

The debates, which Mondale counted on to give an afterburner kick to his campaign, apparently changed few minds: less than 2% of the undecideds said they shifted into the Mondale camp. Even the issue of age, which surfaced after Reagan's rambling performance in Louisville, failed to mar the President's all-star rating. A disquieting 39% thought the President was slowing down in his command of the facts, but a resounding 79% said his age would not affect their vote, and 72% did not think Reagan was too old to serve four more years. Indeed, another stint in the Oval Office seems almost inevitable: despite some Mondale gains in the past month, a full 81% of the American public expects Reagan to win.

--By Susan Tifft

* The potential sampling error is plus or minus 3%. When these results are compared with those in previous polls, the potential sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.