The Third Alternative

"I know there are things there in the Philippines that do not look good to us from the standpoint right now of democratic rights. But what is the alternative? It is a large Communist movement to take over the Philippines . . . I think that we're better off trying to retain our friendship . . . rather than throwing [the Philippine people] to the wolves."

President Reagan's comments on the Philippines during the last presidential debate caused widespread consternation in Manila. An armed Communist insurgency in the Philippines certainly presents a threat in many areas of the country, but the moderate democratic opposition to Marcos has been growing stronger than ever during the 14 months since the shooting of former Senator Benigno ("Ninoy") Aquino Jr. "Reagan is completely misreading the situation," said Francisco Tatad, a former government minister who is now an opposition leader. "His comments have disappointed a lot of people here." At week's end Marcos declared that though grateful for U.S. support, "we certainly don't want to appear the pet dog of any Western ally."

Ever since Aquino's murder, in fact, U.S. diplomats have consistently pressured Marcos to allow the growth of a democratic alternative to his rule. They have also urged democratic opposition leaders to seek power within the present political system. One result: last May, in national elections, moderate opposition parties increased their standing in the 200-member National Assembly from 14 seats to 62.

Although none of the prominent opponents to Marcos can command the broad-based political support Aquino might have had, their ranks include such unlikely bedfellows as Jaime Cardinal Sin, the outspoken Archbishop of Manila, and Jaime Ongpin, president of the Benguet mining corporation. Also included are Corazon Aquino, Ninoy's widow, and Agapito ("Butz") Aquino, his younger brother. The opposition draws experience from such veteran Marcos foes as Salvador Laurel, head of the opposition United Nationalist Democratic Organization coalition, and Lorenzo Tanada, 86, the grand old man of the opposition.

At the same time, the Communist New People's Army has, in recent months, managed to field an estimated 10,000 armed guerrillas in most of the country's 73 provinces. In parts of the southern island of Mindanao, the guerrillas have organized virtual surrogate governments. Earlier this month, Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Armitage told the House Subcommittee for Asian and Pacific Affairs that without reforms, Marcos' regime could be overthrown by the Communists "within less than a decade."

Privately, Administration officials say that a successful Marxist uprising could take place in half that time. But for the moment, Marcos has more immediate worries. "There happens to be a third alternative, and the name for it is democracy," says Democratic Congressman Stephen Solarz of New York, chairman of the House subcommittee. But if the democratic opposition is deprived of the opportunity to compete for power peacefully, he adds, "the President's mistaken analysis of the current situation will become a prophecy for the future."