Playing Computer Catch-Up

By Charles P. Alexander

One way or another, students in the Soviet Union often adopt, belatedly at least, Western fads. By turning to the thriving black market in Moscow and other cities, many Soviet teens manage to spend their spare rubles on imported designer jeans or bootleg tapes of Michael Jackson and Boy George. But Soviet youth have so far missed out completely on one craze that is sweeping much of the West: the computer boom. Most Soviet teens have never touched a personal computer, much less spent hours hacking away happily at a keyboard. ;

Soon, however, the U.S.S.R. may have its own generation of computer kids. The Kremlin has decreed that in September computer classes will begin "on a large scale" for the 8 million ninth- and tenth-grade students in the Soviet Union's 60,000 high schools. Said a statement issued by the Politburo: "All- round and profound mastering by young people of computers must become an important factor in speeding up the scientific and technological progress in the country." While computers are widespread in American high schools, most Soviet students have no chance to learn about the machines until college.

The drive to put computers in the classroom is apparently part of a plan by Soviet Party Boss Mikhail Gorbachev to revitalize the sluggish Soviet economy. Last year's growth in national income, the closest Soviet equivalent to gross national product, was a disappointing 2.6%, down from 3.1% in 1983 and only about half the size of the gains achieved in the 1960s. Many industries, including transportation and communications, are a decade or more behind the West in their use of computers, and that has retarded productivity increases. Moscow now seems to recognize that unless the Soviet Union produces a new generation of industrial engineers, workers and managers who are skilled and comfortable with computers, the country will suffer economically.

Nonetheless, the U.S.S.R. is not exactly a backwater when it comes to computers. Its scientists, many of whom are top notch by international standards, have built large machines that are powerful and accurate enough to guide cosmonauts into orbit. The military has many weapons that incorporate advanced computer technology, some of it stolen or copied from Western nations. The Soviets have lagged far behind the West in developing smaller computers that are used in offices and factories. They have been unable to master the precision manufacturing techniques needed to mass-produce computers. Says Vico Henriques, head of the Washington-based Computer and Business Equipment Manufacturers Association: "The Soviets' capability in computer science is probably equal to ours. Just look at the very sophisticated things they're able to do in space. But from a computer manufacturing standpoint, they are nowhere near us."

The Soviets will be hard pressed to have the high-school computer program in full swing by the Politburo's September deadline. Western experts doubt that enough computers will be available to equip all the schools. Even if the ; machines arrive, there will probably be shortages of computer textbooks and teachers who know how to use them. "There are still many obstacles," admits an article about the new computer program in Pravda, the official party newspaper.

The biggest questions are what kinds of computers will be used and where they will come from. Personal computers first appeared in the U.S. in the mid 1970s, but the Soviets did not produce one until 1983. That maiden model, called the Agat, a shortened form of the name Agatha, is a crude copy of the Apple II, one of the first personal computers sold in the U.S.

The Soviets have yet to produce the Agat in large quantities, and its quality is still suspect. Leo Bores, an eye surgeon and computer buff from Scottsdale, Ariz., tried out the Agat on a visit to the Soviet Union and wrote about his findings in last November's Byte magazine. Bores, who facetiously dubbed Agat the Yabloko (Russian for apple), discovered that the Soviet machine performs some tasks 30% slower than an Apple. The Soviets would not be able to export Agat to the West, he says, "even if they gave it away." Stephen Bryen, a top Defense Department expert on technology trade, claims that the disk drive on the Agat often breaks down.

Afansy Kuznetsov, a leading Soviet educator, last week revealed the existence of a new personal-computer model called the Timur in honor of a character in children's literature. A few of the Timurs have been tried out at schools in Moscow and Novosibirsk. Says an official in the Soviet Ministry of Education: "The trial of the Timur showed that the make was suitable for the education process, but some improvement was needed." Western computer specialists have not yet had much chance to evaluate the Timur.

Soviet officials plan to use both the Agat and Timur in the high school computer program, but they are apparently concerned about being able to produce enough machines for its students. As a result, the Soviets may buy thousands of Western-made ones. In January the U.S. Government loosened slightly its restrictions on computer exports to the Soviet Union. The new rules will allow shipment of relatively less powerful personal computers, such as the Apple II and the IBM PC. Since that change, the Soviets have held preliminary talks with IBM, Apple and Commodore International and with other companies in Britain, France, West Germany and Japan. Says Apple President John Sculley: "We don't have anything yet to be excited about, but we're excited about the possibility." Commodore says it expects to begin serious negotiations with the Soviets next month. "The market is there," says George Dolan, a Commerce Department official based in San Francisco. "The exporters are ready."

Western companies were invited to show off their personal computers and other educational equipment at a trade fair held for nine days last January in the center of Moscow. Among the 50 firms that mounted displays were Britain's Quest Automation and Sinclair Ltd.; no U.S. makers were represented. The fair was a hit with Muscovites, who paid 50 kopecks (about 75 cents) for tickets and crowded into a pavilion that was blinking brightly with video screens. Computers were also on prominent display at a Moscow robotics trade fair in February.

Western governments still bar the sale of large computers to the Soviets. Reason: the principal user of computer technology in the Soviet Union is the military. To get around the trade restrictions, the Soviets have relied on espionage. Through bribery and theft, clandestine armies of agents have obtained thousands of classified documents giving technical specifications for Western computers. Whenever possible, the Soviets have gone after the machines themselves. A favorite Soviet tactic is to set up bogus companies in Western Europe to buy computers and then smuggle them to Moscow. In recent years, the U.S. Government has seized several powerful machines that were being illegally shipped to the Soviet Union, including Digital Equipment's VAX and PDP 11/44 minicomputers.

The West got a rare inside look at the Kremlin's technological espionage last week when secret Soviet documents came to light in France. The material was obtained by French intelligence agents, who leaked it to Le Monde, the Paris newspaper, and TF1, a French government-owned television station. The documents, prepared in part by the Soviet Union's Military Industries Commission, reveal that in 1979 the country's aircraft manufacturers saved an estimated $65 million in research and development costs by using pilfered technology. Soviet aircraft engineers were able to draw upon 140 "samples" of Western hardware and 3,543 technical documents obtained through "special channels." The report said that 61% of the stolen secrets came from the U.S.

The advent of the personal computer has made it simple for the Soviets to obtain many advanced microprocessors, memory chips and other computer parts. All an agent needs to do is walk into a retail computer store, buy a machine and sneak it to Moscow for dissection and analysis. That is one reason why Western governments have eased restrictions on personal computer exports.

Even if the Soviets decide to import thousands of machines, the Kremlin is not expected to permit a Western-style computer revolution. The government has not allowed ordinary Soviet citizens to own personal computers. Even if the machines became available, few people could afford one. The Agat costs at least $3,600, far more than the typical worker's annual salary of $2,500.

The use of personal computers is being limited to places like classrooms and community centers where it can be monitored and supervised. The reason for the caution is that the personal computer threatens the Kremlin's tight control over what the Soviet people see and read. Says Olin Robison, president of Middlebury College in Vermont and a Soviet expert: "The Russians can't easily accommodate computer technology because it gives too many people too much information." Secrecy is so vital to the Soviet system that printing presses or even photocopying machines are unavailable to the average citizen. Since personal computers attached to printers can function as high-speed presses, the Kremlin is unlikely to allow them to become commonplace in Soviet homes.

Electronic linkups that let computers communicate with one another, known as networks in the U.S., are rare in the Soviet Union. In addition, Soviet computers are usually unable to exchange data by telephone because of poor- quality phone lines. Those conditions help the Soviets control the flow of information, but they stifle the free exchange of ideas that is crucial to the rapid advance of computer science. In the U.S., many refinements in programming techniques have been developed by computer buffs who trade tips through networks and electronic bulletin boards.

Technological progress and strong economic growth in such industrial nations as the U.S. and Japan have been spurred by the swift spread of information made possible by computers. If the Soviet Union maintains restrictions on their use, it might not come close to realizing the full economic potential of computers. Says Loren Graham, a professor of the history of science and a Soviet expert at M.I.T.: "We may be about to learn that the Soviet system is not designed for the information age. If that is the case, it is going to be increasingly difficult for the U.S.S.R. to maintain its pretensions as the world's second superpower in the decades ahead."

With reporting by Elisa Tinsley/ Moscow, with other bureaus