Warning: Travel with Care

By Stephen Koepp

It is Eastertide in Rome, April in Paris and the eve of Passover in Jerusalem. But suddenly, for millions of American tourists, this is chiefly the season for caution in making travel plans. In 1986, in sharp contrast to the overseas-travel surge of a year ago, Americans and their sought-after dollars are making themselves scarce in many parts of Western Europe and the Mediterranean. The phones of travel agents are as busy as ever, but many of the callers now want to change their vacation plans. Some are canceling their trips abroad entirely. Others are choosing more circuitous means and routes to reach their destinations, rather than having to pass through airports in Rome, Athens and other cities along the Mediterranean littoral. The fear of terrorism has suddenly become an important factor in the $250 billion U.S. travel industry.

Many U.S. holidaymakers are hurriedly lining up presumably safer summer excursions, including Caribbean cruises and even charter tours to Moscow. But above all, Americans this year are deciding that they would rather take in the splendors of their own land, on motor-home jaunts to Disney World, camping trips to U.S. national parks, and surfing safaris to Hawaii. The travel industry expects a jump of 10% or more in domestic bookings this year. Says Harold Van Sumeren, president of the Chamber of Commerce in Traverse City, Mich., a boating and camping mecca: "We're really anticipating one of the biggest and finest summer seasons we've ever had."

The apprehension over travel to Europe and the Mediterranean is a direct result of the recent rash of bloody attacks directed against U.S. citizens in Italy and West Germany, of rioting in Egypt and of random bombings in France. Last week travelers had further cause to be spooked by the harsh words and bellicose gestures flying between the U.S. and Libya. Reasons other than the terrorism scare, such as a sharp decline in the value of the U.S. dollar abroad and an abundance of cheap gasoline at home, are also involved in the shuffle of itineraries. Even so, says Sam Massell, an Atlanta travel agent, "if you're going on vacation, you want to start off happy. You're not supposed to go where you have to think about stress management."

Edward and Ginger Levy, of Franklin Lakes, N.J., had planned to spend their 30th wedding anniversary on a $4,000 Mediterranean cruise this month, but switched to a $1,000 jaunt to Toronto instead and saved the rest of the money. Herbert and Judith Monheit, of Elkins Park, Pa., changed their May vacation destination from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia at the urging of family members. Says Herbert: "It sort of wore on us. I know the odds (of a terrorist attack) are infinitesimal, but why take the chance?"

The change in U.S. traveling patterns is already starting to have substantial effects. Until late last year, U.S. travel to Europe and the Mediterranean was setting records, thanks partly to the buying power of the strong dollar. Some 6.4 million Americans visited European countries in 1985, up from 5.8 million the previous year. Now the trade magazine Travel Industry Monthly expects European tourism by Americans to fall by about 25% in 1986. Western Europe's total revenue from U.S. tourists is expected to drop by $2 billion in 1986, from a record $7 billion last year.

The hardest-hit travel destination in the Mediterranean region appears to be Egypt, where some 8,000 police conscripts heavily damaged luxury hotels near the Pyramids when they went on an impromptu riot in February. About 80% of the Americans who planned to visit the country have now canceled their reservations, thus wiping out most of the $100 million in U.S. tourism revenues that Egypt stood to gain this year. Says Adel Zaki, manager of ETA Tours, a large Egyptian travel agency: "This year is going to be a catastrophe."

In Israel, a Jerusalem travel agent complains just as bitterly that "our season has been screwed." Last year tourism earned the country $1.1 billion, and Israeli tourist officials had expect ed 1986 to be another big year, with more than 500,000 Americans due to visit, vs. 433,000 last year. Now, says Israeli Tourism Spokeswoman Bonnie Goldman, "we're lucky if we match 1984's figure of 400,000. We're worried and concerned about it." With reason: at a convention of high-risk-insurance agents in Jerusalem last week, only 150 of the 500 scheduled guests actually showed up.

The economic injury will be sizable in Italy and Greece, which could lose up to half of their American visitors this summer. (About 2 million Americans toured Italy last year, while 466,000 went to Greece.) Some private travel agents expect the drop to be more like 80%. For Italian luxury hotels and cruise liners, cancellations by U.S. tourists are running from 25% to 60%. France, which gains more than $700 million a year from U.S. tourists, expects to lose as much as a quarter of that business. West Germany could lose up to 40% of its U.S. tourism revenue. Because many Americans schedule several stops on their vacations, even safer countries can suffer when travel to hotter spots is canceled. Britain will thus lose business too, but hopes to make a comeback with the July wedding of Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson.

Some of the affected countries are trying to fight back with promotional campaigns. Greece is running a $3 million U.S. video-and-print promotion that stars such non-Hellenic celebrities as Sally Struthers and E.G. Marshall, who proclaim that they are "going home to Greece." A former Egyptian Ambassador to the U.S., Ashraf Ghorbal, went on a goodwill tour of six American states last month to boost his country's image among travel writers and politicians. Governments have improved security in recent months, but the displays of armed force in some cases may have frightened off more tourists than terrorists. Says Connie Nicholson, an administrator at the American College in Paris: "When you see three or four cops with rifles slung over their shoulders, you're more scared than when you actually hear about the bombs."

With far fewer Americans to shuttle across the Atlantic, several major airlines will be stung by the shift in travel plans. The likeliest victims are financially struggling Pan Am and TWA, which depend on transatlantic routes for much of their revenue. Eastern Airlines has put on hold the start-up of a new route from Miami to Madrid. The reason: lack of business. Says Hal Rosenbluth, president of a Philadelphia travel agency: "I think the public tends to perceive the U.S. flag carriers as targets." The airlines most immune to the slump are national carriers of northern European countries, which include the Netherlands' KLM, West Germany's Lufthansa and Belgium's Sabena. Israel's El Al, which adheres to rigorous security measures, also remains popular.

To boost travel, the transatlantic carriers have cut fares dramatically. Last week British Airways chopped its lowest New York City-to-London round-trip fare from $599 to $458. TWA, Pan Am and other international carriers have matched the offer.

To be sure, many U.S. travelers tend to shrug at the terrorism panic. "If you're going to run scared, you may as well shut yourself in the bathroom and have someone feed you through the door," says Paul Barton, an Atlanta clothing sales executive. Barton visited Rome with his wife Joan last week to celebrate their 25th wedding anniversary.

Many of those who continue to travel to Europe, however, now adopt elaborate precautions. One ploy is to fly into airports at cities such as Milan, Brussels or Amsterdam, which are considered relatively safe from terrorist attack, then drive or take trains to such final destinations as Rome or Paris. Tourists can further reduce risk by traveling on direct flights between the U.S. and their final destination, rather than changing planes at overseas airports, and by avoiding routes that originate in unstable parts of the world like the Middle East. While in airports, travelers are advised to stay clear of locker areas and unsecured waiting rooms, and to tip off authorities about any suspicious baggage or passengers. Since some terrorists have singled out U.S. citizens as special targets, American travelers would also be wise to be discreet about their nationality while traveling and should avoid ostentatious clothing or jewelry.

For many Americans with foreign wanderlust, new destinations beckon. Qantas, the Australian airline, has had a 40% increase in U.S. passengers during the past twelve months. Hong Kong, Singapore and other Asian locales expect to see more Americans as well, although the surging value of the yen has aggravated Japan's already steep prices for foreigners. African countries, most of which can sorely use tourist dollars, should also get a boost. During the first two months of this year, Pan Am carried 4,800 Americans to Africa, about 10% more than in the same period last year. South American countries, notably Brazil, are attracting greater than usual numbers of U.S. tourists. Says Paulo Marcos, promotion manager for Brazil's Othon Hotels: "Usually after carnaval, they all head home. But this year there are still many around, and we understand that more are coming in June and July."

One unlikely tourist hot spot appears to be Eastern Europe, where totalitarian security measures, among other things, seem to keep terrorism at bay. While debt-ridden Poland lacks such basic facilities as tolerable hotels and restaurants, Hungary and Yugoslavia can easily handle an increase in U.S. tourists, and are starting to do so. The number of Americans visiting the Soviet Union is expected to double this year, to about 90,000 to 100,000, according to William Fisher, head of the American Express office in Moscow.

Another winner in the tourism sweepstakes will be right next door: Canada. One of the biggest draws of the summer may prove to be Expo '86 in Vancouver, which opens May 2 and is now expected to attract some 16 million visitors. Warns a spokesman for Vancouver's Westin Bayshore Hotel: "If you don't already have a reservation here for July or August, you won't get one."

The biggest travel bonanza of all, however, will be in the U.S. With regular unleaded gasoline selling for about 75 cents per gal., millions of Americans had already intended to pack up their station wagons and Winnebagos and hit the road again. Now even more are opting for that vacation route, which has its own risks: an estimated 43,500 U.S. motorists were killed on American roads last year. Nonetheless, the American Automobile Association expects to distribute 7 million of its long-distance route maps this year, a 10% increase from 1985. Says Henry Rosenblatt of Chicago, who will take a driving tour with his wife this summer rather than the European trip or cruise they had once considered: "Somehow we feel much safer in our automobile, even though we know that statistically it's not actually better."

Even heavier streams of visitors than usual will flow to the traditional tourist havens of California, Florida and Hawaii. Predicts Pennsylvania Travel Agent Rosenbluth: "I think California is about to fall off into the ocean --it's going to be so heavy with people this year." Perhaps the best tourism deal remains the U.S. national parks, which typically charge only $3 a carload for admission. The National Park Service, which recorded 264 million visits in 1985, expects a 20% gain this year. That could put a strain on such popular parks as Yosemite and Yellowstone, where narrow roads have caused traffic jams in recent years.

Ironically, the terrorist scare may have done many U.S. travelers a favor. By staying at home, they will funnel more money into the domestic economy and help to cut back on, however marginally, the nation's balance of payments deficit, which hit $118 billion last year. The real benefit, though, is that in greater numbers than previously expected, Americans will be rediscovering the splendid sights and seductive flavors of their own country.

With reporting by Thomas McCarroll/New York, with other bureaus