Argentina A Test for Latin Democracy

By Guy D. Garcia

The candidate, sporting bushy, graying muttonchop sideburns, navel-baring shirts and a gold cross, stumps the land in a bubble-domed mobile home. He is known for driving sports cars, squiring starlets and playing tennis. His oratory is lackluster, but he compensates with charisma and charm. And though Carlos Saul Menem may give uninspired speeches, people listen when he delivers his trademark finish. "Follow me!" he shouts. "For the hunger of the poor children, for the sadness of the rich children, follow me!" By now the crowds are roaring. "I'm not going to deceive you," he concludes. "Follow me!"

Argentina may have to, if Carlos Menem, running for President on the Peronist ticket, wins next Sunday's election. Nearly one-quarter of Argentines are still undecided, but Menem is leading and has a good chance to become the first elected civilian since 1928 to succeed another full-term civilian President. If so, he would also bring back the popular but chaotic politics of Peronism, a controversial -- and volatile -- blend of populism, nationalism and Roman Catholicism.

The orderly transfer of power says a good deal about this election. With more than half a dozen presidential elections in Latin America this year, what has been a rising tide of democracy may be reaching a crest. Loaded down with debt, crippled economies throughout the hemisphere could swamp some of these frail experiments. But Argentina, for one, is no longer deciding whether to have democracy, just what kind of democracy to have.

Despite a restless military and the uncertain character of a Peronist government, this election is about economics. Argentina is flirting with financial disaster. Since last month alone, the country's currency, the austral, has plummeted from 51 to 86 to the dollar. The country's foreign debt stands at $57 billion, and the annual inflation rate is 3,600%. Says Argentine novelist Jose Pablo Feiman: "We are close to social explosion."

What caused Argentina's fall? Some Argentines blame the legacy of Juan Peron, who took power in 1946, was ousted by the military in 1955, then returned to rule from 1973 until his death the following year. Peronism established a "corporative state," in which labor and business struck pacts of cooperation under state management. From their privileged position, the country's Peronist-controlled unions paralyzed whole sectors of the economy at will. The result, say critics, has been a deadly spiral of decreased competition and productivity.

But others fault outgoing President Raul Alfonsin, who cannot succeed himself, for failing to fulfill the surge of national optimism that swept him into office in 1983, ending nearly eight years of military rule. Applauded for his commitment to human rights, Alfonsin promised that a stable democracy would solve the nation's problems. It didn't, and Argentines grew disenchanted as the economy worsened. The military, meanwhile, has been moving back into politics. In three uprisings since 1987, two right-wing colonels demanded better pay and an end to what they saw as unfair political persecution. Only a public outpouring of support for democracy foiled the attempted coups.

Argentines are now looking for a government that works. That should favor Eduardo Angeloz, the candidate of Alfonsin's ruling Radical party, but it also forces him to run against his predecessor's failed economic policies. A deft administrator and governor of prosperous Cordoba province, Angeloz espouses a program of deregulation, privatization and increased foreign investment.

Menem has yet to articulate his own economic program beyond the classic Peronist bromides. He promises eventual higher wages to the workers who form the core of his support, then promises businessmen that the economy will be put in order. He has announced, and retracted, such plans as a moratorium on paying Argentina's staggering foreign debt and establishing sovereignty over the disputed Falkland Islands. But what Menem lacks in substance, he makes up for with his flashy, macho style. The son of Syrian immigrants, Menem has risen from governor of the small La Rioja province to election front runner by sheer force of personality. His emotional directness and humility appeal to the "shirtless ones," who see the Radical party's policies as benefiting only the elite classes. "Alfonsin's government has been showing insensitivity to the lower classes," observes Feiman. "Menem represents the primitive values of Peronism."

Under Argentina's electoral-college system, it is conceivable that Menem could win the popular vote and still lose the election. Should a majority of the college fail to settle on a candidate, the decision will pass to Congress. Not all Argentines are sure that the nation's institutions could withstand such a test. Nor are they sure Argentina could weather another bout of Peronism; Peron's first tour in the presidential residence and his third wife Isabel's term, from 1974 to 1976, both ended in military coups. Argentina may be facing both tests. "Society is learning how much to trust politicians," says pollster and political analyst Manuel Mora y Araujo. "It is a process of very deep, important change."

With reporting by Laura Lopez/Buenos Aires