Whether abortion is an issue that will decide the outcome of elections is being tested in Governor's campaigns in Virginia and New Jersey. Race was expected to be a dominant preoccupation in Virginia, where Democratic Lieut. Governor Douglas Wilder is seeking to become the nation's first elected black Governor. But while it may never be far from voters' minds, the race issue has failed to materialize, allowing Wilder to keep the focus on the antiabortion views of his Republican opponent, Marshall Coleman.

Coleman and Wilder are running nearly even, but Wilder has wider support among women voters. Polls indicate that abortion is the decisive factor in the disparity. "I trust the women of Virginia," Wilder taunted his opponent in a televised debate last week. "That's the difference between you and I." Coleman is trying the hang-tough route, sticking to his staunch opposition to abortion in all cases except where the life of the woman is in danger. But he has promised that if he wins the election he will not propose legislation to outlaw the termination of pregnancies that result from rape or incest.

In New Jersey, Democrat Jim Florio has built a substantial lead over Republican Congressman Jim Courter in part by reminding voters of Courter's solid antiabortion voting record in Congress. Courter has been forced into a defensive retreat, promising that if elected he will keep his hands off the state's liberal abortion laws. "After Courter won the primary, he appeared to modify his position," admits John Tomicki, executive director of the New Jersey Right to Life Committee. "We believe he was uncomfortable with the issue." Kathryn Kolbert, an attorney for the A.C.L.U.'s Reproductive Freedom Project, puts it more bluntly. "He's just done a total backpedal," she says. "He's read the polls."

Pro-choice groups have pumped time and money into campaigns against Coleman and Courter. Last week NARAL previewed a pair of anti-Coleman commercials it has produced for the Virginia race. In New Jersey the group expects to spend $100,000 on Florio's behalf. The organization also plans to contact 50,000 specially selected G.O.P. and independent voters who might be persuaded to support him solely on the basis of his pro-choice stance. "Abortion is now a dominant issue in American politics," says Kate Michelman, NARAL's executive director. Pro-choice activists are doing everything they can to keep it that way.