Could Lithuania Go It Alone?

Like the other two Baltic republics, Lithuania has already been given control of its own economy. Its demands for political independence, however, mean different things to different demanders. If the Baltic state were ever to declare its complete independence from the U.S.S.R., that freedom would carry a price.

To begin with, while people are allowed personal possessions, there is no such thing as private property in the Soviet Union. Thus most of Lithuania's factories, buildings, highways, trains, communication systems -- pretty much everything except the kitchen sink -- belong to the Soviet state. While some property might revert to the republic, presumably Lithuania would have to compensate Moscow in some way for what it takes away with it. Lithuania might also have to pay for the relocation of those of its 3.7 million citizens who want to remain part of the union, starting with most of its 344,000 ethnic Russians.

Even if these problems were resolved, a larger question remains: Can the Lithuanian economy survive on its own? While Lithuania's work force is well educated and diligent, its economic base is largely agricultural. The industrial sector is devoted mostly to consumer goods and electronics, but its outdated television sets and computers would not be competitive in the world market. Western corporations might be invited to form joint ventures, but there is no reason to believe they would pour huge amounts of capital into a country as small and remote as Lithuania while more lucrative opportunities exist in Eastern Europe's larger nations. Foreign assistance would help, but the U.S. track record -- George Bush originally offered Poland a mere $119 million -- is hardly auspicious for a nation with a population one-tenth that of Poland.

The world does offer examples of prosperous states with no important resources other than skilled workers; Hong Kong is one. Says Algimantas Cekuolis, a People's Deputy from Lithuania: "We are the mirror image of South Korea and Singapore 30 years ago." But Lithuania depends on the rest of the Soviet Union for 90% of its raw materials and energy, which cost far more than the food and household products it turns out. Today Vilnius pays the equivalent of $6 per bbl. for oil delivered from Siberia; at world prices it would cost four times that. Lithuania is also a victim of the Soviet economy's "monopolism" -- the practice of turning a single factory into the sole supplier of a certain product for the entire country. As a result, many essential items are simply not made in Lithuania. That works both ways, of course: Lithuania produces more than 150 items that are made nowhere else in the U.S.S.R., and this could offer some bargaining power.

Balts bolster their courage by assuming that they would strike out into full freedom as an economic federation of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Such a course, however, could multiply their difficulties in acquiring capital and triple the price they would have to pay for cutting their ties with the country that absorbed them 50 years ago.