May We Have the Check, Please?

By CHRISTOPHER JOHN FARLEY

The Great Flood of 1993, so far, has contributed to 43 deaths in eight states and devastated crops in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota and elsewhere; now the Midwest is bracing itself for the Great Bill. While cost estimates of cleaning up the deluge are starting to pour in like river water through a levee of sandbags, flood victims are wondering how the impressive damage estimates and aid packages relate to them and their losses. Complains Allen Seeburger, an uninsured farmer in St. Charles County, Missouri, who lost his corn and wheat harvest to the flood: "It takes $100 of taxpayers' money to get a dollar where it's needed."

Two and a half days after the House of Representatives passed a $3 billion relief package for the flood victims last week, the Senate Appropriations Committee followed with a $4.7 billion package. Back in early July, some estimates of the flood's damage were at $500 million; by July 16 the Administration was forecasting $2.5 billion in federal aid and $8 billion in losses. Now experts say the flood may cause about $10 billion in damages. "Coming up with an accurate flood-damage estimate now is like a waiter giving you a restaurant check before you've even ordered the meal," says Morrie Goodman, chief spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. "There is no official estimate of the Federal Government -- it could be $10 billion, it could be $15 billion. As soon as someone quotes one figure, it turns out to be another."

Where do these fluid flood numbers come from? Typically, local and state inspectors visit flooded properties for a firsthand look; however, when a house is under water, it's difficult to tell how much a property is worth or how many appraised antiques may be lying waterlogged in the basement. To come up with an overall dollar figure, inspectors calculate a per-home damage estimate and multiply it by the number of affected homes. And what's the per- home damage dollar figure they're using in Missouri? "I'm not at liberty to discuss it," says Eric Evans, training officer for the Missouri State Emergency Management Agency. "Not that it's secret. But it's never scientific either, and no one has a scientific number." Estimating crop damage is more accurate because the Department of Agriculture employs aerial observation.

Experts say disasters are getting more costly, partly because of growing populations in risky areas. "Each ((calamity)) is going to be more expensive because more people are in the way," says Roey Price, president of the National Emergency Management Association. "Unless we work much harder on mitigating the effects, $20 billion to $30 billion losses are going to be routine." A week after Hurricane Andrew struck in August 1992, the damage estimate was $7.3 billion; a year later, that figure is more than $21 billion. Eight months after Andrew, FEMA had doled out only $120 million in aid to the people of Dade County, far less than the $1.2 billion that was earmarked.

Out in the flood-ravaged Midwest, in St. Charles County, Missouri, the latest disaster victims are applying for assistance. Farmer Marie Oldenberg, 74, spent an afternoon in a local high school filling out government forms. She and her husband were hoping to earn money for retirement this year, but the flood destroyed their entire crop of corn, beans and wheat. "The government forms asked lots of questions -- what our income was, if we had insurance and how much money we had in the bank," says Oldenberg, who is not optimistic about getting her losses covered. "Maybe at least we'll get reimbursed for our motel bill."

With reporting by Lynn Emmerman/Chicago and Adam Zagorin/Washington