Second Time Lucky?

By JEFFERSON PENBERTHY ISLAMABAD

"THIS IS MY VICTORY. IT IS A CLEAR and decisive victory." That was Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto's line last week, and, to an extent, the election results bore her out. After a bitter name-calling campaign, Bhutto and her P.P.P. gained 87 seats in the 217-seat National Assembly -- a plurality far short of a majority -- while her rival, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, took 72.

But while Bhutto reveled in her victory, she also said she was "disappointed" by the outcome. Independent analysts went further: they considered the result disastrous because in the absence of a parliamentary majority, there would probably be no end to the political crisis that has paralyzed Pakistan for the past six months. Said a Western diplomat in Islamabad: "Tragically, Bhutto has come nowhere near winning a workable majority. If she can form a government for the second time, she will become a handmaiden of the army and outside forces."

There is in fact no guarantee that Bhutto, who was Prime Minister from 1988 to 1990 before being ousted by presidential fiat, can form a government. As soon as the election results were in, she and Nawaz Sharif began negotiations to win the support of regional splinter parties as well as independents, who garnered the balance of Assembly seats. Both claimed they had the backing to form a government when the Assembly convenes for a secret parliamentary leadership ballot Oct. 19. But Bhutto was widely seen as having the edge.

Pakistanis might have preferred a third choice, Moeen Qureshi, a former World Bank vice president who was caretaker Prime Minister during the three months before the election. Qureshi, a nonelected official, was imported from his home in Washington to ensure a fair campaign. He took office after Nawaz Sharif, like Bhutto three years earlier, had been forced out following a contretemps with President Ghulam Ishaq Khan, in a deal brokered by General Abdul Waheed Kakar, the army chief of staff. During his brief tenure, Qureshi cut tariffs, reformed tax collection and exposed some of the corruption that had flourished under the two preceding governments. A pre-election poll showed that 8 out of 10 Pakistanis would have liked Qureshi to stay on.

During the 30-day election campaign, both major candidates doled out lavish promises to potential supporters. Bhutto offered a new joint parnership between the government and business and paid lip service to Qureshi's reforms, but she pandered to feudal landowners with promises of new price supports for agricultural commodities. She also pitched heavily for the support of women. Nawaz Sharif stood on his record of having launched privatization and several grandiose development projects, which have left the country nearly bankrupt.

A second term in office will demand a more mature performance from Bhutto, 40, who alienated the military as well as the business establishment during her first term. Almost the only legislation passed duirng that time was the annual budget, while many of Bhutto's minsters and close advisers -- including her husband Asif Ali Zardari -- were accused of patronage and receiving kickbacks on government contracts handed out to business associates. Whether Bhutto stays in power will largely depend on how she handles her relations with the military. One develoment in her favor: the top army command shifted last January, with the sudden death of General Asif Nawaz Janjua, to General Abdul Whaheed, 56, who is considered to be less political than his predecessors. But he too will face pressure from the armed services to defend the large defense budget, which Bhutto's poor and low-income supporters will want to see cut. After the army's role in forcing Nawaz Sharif's resignation, it is thought unlikely that a minority Bhutto government would risk doing anything to displease the generals.

The other unknown is the reaction of Nawaz Sharif, 44, who warned last week that "the election is not over." Among other things, he was referring to the outcome of balloting for Pakistan's four powerful provincial assemblies, which got under way at week's end. Hostile provincial administrations have the power to unite, confining the authority of the national government to virtually within the capital district of Islamabad. As it is, support for Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif reflects the regional divisons that have undermined national stability and independence since 1947. Bhutto's votes came largely from her native province, Sind, where her family retains large landholdings, and from the rural areas of populous Punjab. Naqaz Sharif scored a virtual clean sweep in the largest cities -- Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi -- and industrial areas of Punjab.

Neither leadership candidate offered clear solutions for Pakistan's slow economic growth, heavy debt repayments, endemic poverty, proliferating crime and a growing drug culture. Tackling any one of these problems will require strong will and strong political support. No one doubts that Bhutto has the will, but no one is betting that she will be able to muster the second vital ingredient.

With reporting by Safdar Barias and Kathleen Evans/Karachi