Arafat, Ready Or Not

By LISA BEYER/GAZA STRIP

Diplomatic signing ceremonies are supposed to be formal affairs, choreographed to the dotted i and not a handshake out of place. So the 2,500 guests in Cairo's International Conference Center, gathered to see Israel and the P.L.O. seal an agreement to begin Palestinian self-rule, were astonished by the drama unfolding among the dignitaries onstage. For 35 minutes, while the principals came and went from the podium, their attention was all too plainly elsewhere. Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres remonstrated with Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat, Prime Minister ^ Yitzhak Rabin with Peres, Arafat with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev with Secretary of State Warren Christopher. Rabin kept shrugging angrily while Arafat stood stonefaced. Then the entire group walked off the stage.

Rabin had discovered that Arafat failed to pen his name to six accompanying maps that spelled out important terms of the deal. The Prime Minister threatened to quit the ceremony unless Arafat relented. Four minutes later, the parties reappeared. The audience applauded in relief as Arafat returned to the desk and methodically wrote in annotations above his signature on the documents.

Before doing so, Arafat wanted a written guarantee that the size of the self-rule enclave around Jericho would be open to revision, not cemented at the 25-sq.-mi. area drawn on the maps. With that promise, the deal was sealed. But the public theatrics underscored how tentative is each step toward Israeli-Palestinian coexistence. The snafu in Cairo was only "the tip of the iceberg of problems that we shall have to overcome," said Rabin.

Not Ready for Prime Time

After 27 years of fighting Israeli control of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the P.L.O. at last finds the occupiers ready, even eager, to begin a retreat. Yet, in testimony to how unprepared it is to rule, the organization has informed the Israelis that it needs more time to get ready, so chaos does not take over before the P.L.O. can.

Under the agreement, the transfer of power in the Gaza Strip and Jericho enclaves will take 21 days. But the changeover may take even longer. "There is no real deadline," says a high-ranking Israeli negotiator. "We shall stay as long as is necessary." The army preferred to complete its redeployment within a few days, fearing a slow drawdown of troops might expose the departing soldiers to danger if the P.L.O. failed to maintain order. Such concerns were magnified by the P.L.O.'s imperfect management. A day after the Cairo ceremony, the first 1,500 of 9,000 Palestinian police were to arrive from P.L.O. bases around the Arab world. But only 19 police commanders turned up; the others were delayed by "technical hitches."

The P.L.O. is supposed to take over every aspect of civil life -- utilities, education, health, taxation, licensing -- but it has established little bureaucracy to oversee these functions. Rashid Abu Shbak, a member of the Israeli-Palestinian liaison committee that was supposed to lay the groundwork, admits that "on our side, there are no preparations." In Jericho locals kept watching for renovations to begin on the building chosen for Arafat's future headquarters -- to no avail. The question of when the Tunis-based Arafat will relocate to the territories elicits embarrassed laughs from P.L.O. functionaries. Officially they say that for reasons of protocol Arafat will not arrive until the last Israeli soldier has left. Privately, they admit that Arafat seems to be in no rush to get to the territories. But his advisers insist that the Chairman intends to arrive the first week in June. Once there, his job will shift from champion of a revolutionary movement to provincial governor, charged with such quotidian details as administering the sewage and trash-collection systems.

Arafat's Flaws

The inherent difficulties of transforming any liberation movement into a government account for much of the P.L.O.'s sluggishness. But Arafat's personal style is a critical factor. "It is his traditional way to make last- minute decisions," says Ghassan Khatib, a former Palestinian negotiator. "He has never planned anything in advance in his life."

The Chairman has kept virtually all decision making for himself, declining to delegate responsibility. Days after the P.L.O. was supposed to begin its rule, Arafat had still not officially named the 24-member council that is to govern until an elected body is chosen, tentatively next October. Roughly half the interim council members were supposed to come from among the P.L.O. leaders in exile, the others from within the territories. Despite this promise, prominent locals feared being shunted aside, though they are more familiar with local conditions than the men from Tunis. "You can expect to see clashes between the local and outside leaders when the outsiders arrive," warns Abdul Karim Sidr, a P.L.O. leader in Jericho.

The P.L.O.'s Challenge

Despite the bumpy progress, no one is forecasting mayhem when the Israelis pull out. The civil servants who run the utilities and provide basic services in the territories are mostly Palestinian, and the P.L.O. has agreed to keep them in their jobs for at least six months.

The P.L.O.'s challenge is to do better than just get along. "Of course we have people who can continue to conduct things as they are now," says Dr. Eyad Sarraj, who runs a mental-health clinic in Gaza City. "But to enhance the growth of the community, we need different people." Talent is available. Palestinians are among the best educated of all Middle Easterners. Those in exile were among the principal builders of the modern gulf states, and entrepreneurs outside the territories have abundant resources. The international community has also promised to pitch in. Last week the World Bank announced it had amassed $1.2 billion of the $2.1 billion that 40 donors have pledged to Palestinian development. The question now is how effectively Arafat will capitalize on these assets.

The answer will help determine how rapidly the PL.O. gets hands on additional territory and powers. Now that the Gaza-Jericho experiment has begun, Israel and the P.L.O. are supposed to start negotiating self-rule for the rest of the West Bank, excluding East Jerusalem. Originally those talks were scheduled to take seven months. But since the relatively easy Gaza- Jericho pact took that long, the second phase will almost surely stretch out longer.

With the future so uncertain, there was little jubilation in the territories. "We will be starting off with difficulties in all fields," said Sobhi Terhy, a carpenter in Gaza City. Throughout the Gaza Strip and Jericho, the Palestinian flags that first went up last September were faded and worn. But the widespread sobriety was perhaps a good thing. Wild expectations have long been a weakness of the Palestinians. Now they have the task of building more and dreaming less.

With reporting by David Aikman, Ron Ben-Yishai and Dean Fischer/Cairo and Jamil Hamad/Gaza Strip