Hurry Up and Wait

By Bruce W. Nelan

If only world leadership were just a matter of talk. As the first U.S. President since Woodrow Wilson to address France's parliament, Bill Clinton spoke easily and confidently, reading from transparent TelePrompTer screens that fascinated the French. He neatly dissected his desire to make foreign policy by international consensus -- and the drawbacks to that approach. The Atlantic allies, at this "moment of decision," must strengthen their unity, but the task now was one particularly difficult for democracies: "To unite our people when they do not feel themselves in imminent peril."

The President was poignantly defining his own difficulties with foreign policy, especially when it involves military force. Since entering the White House, he has found it almost impossible to unite the U.S. and its allies on agreed courses of action, or even to set a firm course and stick to it. At D- day ceremonies, Clinton told the assembled veterans that "we are the children of your sacrifice," but he has been unable to spell out clearly the interests and principles for which this generation of Americans must be willing to sacrifice their blood.

Clinton's European trip was not designed to be a substantive foreign policy crusade. It was aimed at image building: persuading foreign leaders that Clinton was more at home with the issues than their diplomats and intelligence services were telling them. Flying home Wednesday, the atmosphere aboard Air Force One was one of fulfillment. The Clintons and their aides believed they ! had just wound up one of their best weeks in months.

But back in Washington the President and his aides awoke to a jet-lagged letdown. The preliminary poll data did not show the surge they had expected. And the same old foreign policy problems awaited him in the Oval Office, all demanding the President's attention and none open to once-and-for-all solutions.

HAITI. Clinton made his first post-trip appearance to announce more sanctions on Haiti's military bosses: a freeze on financial transactions between the U.S. and Haiti and a ban on airline flights beginning June 25. These steps are in addition to an ever tightening trade embargo on all imports but food and medicine. These pressures, Clinton said, are aimed at a "solution where the coup leaders step down."

The Administration pointedly refused to rule out a military invasion, though Pentagon aides say no preparations are under way. At an Organization of American States meeting, ministers approved a force of 3,000 to keep the peace after the Haitian regime departs. ABC television reported Friday night that Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott had told U.N. officials the U.S. would invade Haiti in July if sanctions had not succeeded, then hand over quickly to the OAS force. The State Department issued a speedy denial. The U.N. confirmed it had received a memo quoting Talbott but hedged on its contents.

Administration officials say the combination of threats and specific actions are supposed to make Haiti's bosses start taking seriously U.S. determination to remove them. In the past, deadlines for their departure have come and gone, while Washington did little. By week's end officials were once again emphasizing sanctions and the long haul. That could change quickly if the junta retaliates by seizing humanitarian-aid shipments or threatening the lives of Americans.

NORTH KOREA. Despite some calls for firmer action, Clinton stuck to his policy of slowly pressuring Pyongyang into giving up its nuclear dream. Two weeks ago, he said the North Koreans' refusal to permit full inspection of their nuclear facilities made it "virtually imperative" for the U.N. Security Council to consider imposing sanctions. Last week some of the necessary partners began to dance away from the prospect, making it uncertain that Clinton can make the sanctions stick.

The Japanese publicly vowed to go along with any sanctions decided by the U.N. Privately, though, Tokyo is suggesting that the process be drawn out, ! beginning with another warning to Pyongyang, followed by minor sanctions. Only then would Japan move to a full embargo, including a halt to the hundreds of millions of dollars in remittances that North Koreans in Japan send home each year.

In Tokyo, Under Secretary of State Peter Tarnoff let it drop that sanctions were not a certainty. "We did not come with a specific proposal," he said. "The purpose is to talk about categories that might be included in the resolution, including sanctions." Russia said it would approve sanctions "if all other means of settlement are exhausted," but in return for a U.S. concession. Moscow and Washington would introduce a resolution in the U.N. this week to provide for sanctions -- and the international conference the Russians want.

But no sanctions of any sort can get through the council if China vetoes them, and last week Beijing was not encouraging. "Sanctions are not a sensible choice," said Foreign Minister Qian Qichen. "They would only aggravate the crisis."

BOSNIA. French leaders were immensely pleased with Clinton's visit, and President Francois Mitterrand went out of his way to praise him. Reason: Clinton has finally signed on to French policy in Bosnia. As a Foreign Ministry official in Paris observed, "We now feel we are dealing with a really responsible leader." It is quite a climb-down for Clinton, though the Administration says it is simply realism -- and that may be true. In January 1993 he dismissed European proposals to partition Bosnia as too favorable to the Serbs and a reward for their aggression. In Paris he agreed to put Washington's full weight behind a plan that would give the Bosnian government, composed mostly of Muslims, and federation partner Croatia 51% of Bosnia's territory, leaving 49% for the Serbs, who now hold 70%.

The U.S. said it would lean on both sides to accept that settlement. If the Bosnian Serbs go along but the Bosnian government refuses, Washington might favor easing the economic sanctions now in place against Serbia. "There's nothing new about that at all," Christopher insisted.

In all of these pernicious cases, Clinton has opted for a holding action. Over the next month or two, the crises will flare up again, perhaps in more virulent form. By then the new sanctions on Haiti may have proved just as ineffectual as the old ones. Despite a promised four-week cease-fire, the Bosnian government and the Serbs may refuse to settle for their allotted percentages.

Even more threatening, the North Koreans may remove their 8,000 nuclear fuel rods from the cooling ponds where they lie under international supervision and begin processing them to acquire enough plutonium for four or five atom bombs. If that happens, Clinton will face his most urgent and dangerous challenge. The secret of George Bush's great success in the confrontation with Iraq was his willingness to commit America to fight alone if need be. Clinton so far has displayed no willingness to do that anywhere abroad.

With reporting by Edward W. Desmond/Tokyo, Michael Duffy and J.F.O. McAllister/Washington and Thomas A. Sancton/Paris