WHO IS SWITCHING TO FORBES AND WHY

By Richard Lacayo

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TOday..." That's what they say at the start of a lot of poll questions. The tricky part is, of course, that the election is not being held today. Talk to them now, and most people are not quite ready to tune in on the campaign season. But even in this politically somnambulant moment, when attack ads lodge fitfully between that part of the brain that stores miracle grapefruit diets and the part that remembers Valentine's Day, there is still a discernible trend. Its name is Steve Forbes. And what settles into the distracted consciousness is something like this: Forbes. Not from Washington. Good. Flat tax? Hmmm. Seventeen percent tax rate? Hmmm.

Nationally, Bob Dole is still well ahead in the Republican pack, but it is Forbes who is teasing the voter impulse to ignore the pack and start over. He is luring voters from the ranks of weak Dole supporters, undecided voters and even some from Phil Gramm's camp. But Forbes is especially appealing to the upscale and the socially moderate. That is the upshot of the second installment of the TIME/CNN Election Monitor, a poll that returns periodically to the same large sample of people to ask them about their shifting view of the candidates and issues. For this one, 1,117 registered voters who identified themselves earlier as Republicans or as leaning that way were questioned last week about the G.O.P. primary field. What emerged was this:

Despite the Forbes run-up in New Hampshire and elsewhere, especially in states where his $15 million in advertising has been concentrated, Dole has gained at least enough supporters overall to replace the ones he lost to Forbes. When likely Republican voters were asked whom they would support, 47% said Dole, up a bit from the last Election Monitor in November. But Forbes has become the indisputable second. He is the choice of 17%, a sizable step up from the 4% who picked him before. As for the rest of the G.O.P. field, every one of them is still an et cetera. Phil Gramm 9%, Pat Buchanan 6%, Lamar Alexander 3%. Et cetera.

More than a third of Forbes' current supporters in the poll preferred Dole last November. Many of them cite Forbes' ideas and outsider status for their change of heart. "He's not looking over his shoulder at what somebody thinks about him," says Richard Riley, a retired geologist in Columbus, Ohio, and former Dole supporter. "Forbes energizes me." The next-biggest pool of new support for Forbes is among such people as Warren Snyder, a Suffolk, Virginia, phone-company worker who was undecided last fall. "I'm really against the people in Washington. I think Forbes might be refreshing," says Snyder, who voted for Perot in 1992.

Many Forbes backers have centrist views that might otherwise have led them to drift toward Dole as the most moderate of the Republican field. Among the supporters of both candidates, about the same percentage describe themselves as regular churchgoers (Dole 45%, Forbes 43%). But when it comes to social attitudes, Forbes voters are less likely to side with the Christian Right. On abortion, 57% are pro-choice, in contrast to 48% of those for Dole. Asked whether the government should promote one set of moral values over another, 54% of Forbes voters say no. Among Dole voters, a 51% majority says yes. Forbes also runs stronger than Dole among men, the wealthy, the college-educated, voters who chose Perot in '92, people who do not own guns and citizens who think big government has become a menace.

Forbes' run-up in the polls is also a testament to the name recognition money can buy. Thanks to massive TV advertising in early-primary states and the ensuing publicity, the Forbes name has begun to acquire an appealing glow. Carmen Palmer, 66, of Fort Worth, Texas, has shifted her support from Dole to Forbes. "Can't say exactly why," she says, "except that he has some very good ideas--although I can't tell you exactly what they are right now.''

But there is one Forbes idea most of his supporters can name: the flat tax, which 27% of those surveyed gave as their No. 1 reason for preferring him. Says Cindy Connelly, 33, a part-time bank teller in Cope, South Carolina: "Other than the flat tax, I really don't know a whole lot about him, but what I have heard I like. The income tax is made with loopholes for the rich."

Talk with Forbes supporters, and their common theme is that they would like to know more. They will. He is being challenged to clarify his stand on issues beyond the flat tax. As for that one, he acknowledges it would generate less government revenue, which could mean either a higher deficit or even heavier spending cuts in such places as Medicare. Voters may end up liking the flat tax the way they like budget cutting, which makes them flinch when the blade gets close.

Does Forbes have the kind of durable support to carry him through the primaries, never mind into the White House? Judy Lutes, 52, a homemaker in Rogers, Arkansas, says that because Forbes is a fresh face, she is for him now. And later? "I probably will not vote for him because he has not held public office before. He has no experience." The restless voter, however, is not a problem for Forbes alone. Lisa Musgrave, 29, a manicurist in Riverdale, California, is for Dole. For now. To be honest, she says, she is not thinking much about the election. "With a five-year-old and a three-year-old, you don't get to watch the politics on TV. It's usually the Cartoon Network or the Disney Channel." Voters like her will soon start switching to the campaign news. Judging by how quickly voters moved to Forbes, and by the weak commitment of many to their candidates of the moment, the race is going to be a lively one.

--Reported by Lamia Abu-Haidar, Barbara Burke and Susanne Washburn/New York

With reporting by LAMIA ABU-HAIDAR, BARBARA BURKE AND SUSANNE WASHBURN/NEW YORK