Monday, Oct. 12, 1998

Changing Of The Guard

The clock is ticking in this part of the world. Without continuous progress, the peace process falls apart. The U.S. is busy trying to nudge Israel and the Palestinians into implementing a long-delayed stage of the Oslo peace pact. Even with a breakthrough "time is really not our friend here," says National Security Adviser Sandy Berger. It's taken 18 months so far to negotiate the transfer of 13% of West Bank land. Now there's little hope the two can settle questions of Jerusalem's status and a future Palestinian state by Oslo's May 4 deadline.

Perhaps more fateful, an actuarial deadline looms. As the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin has shown, personalities count in making peace. Today, many Middle East leaders are old or ailing. Arafat, 69, reportedly has Parkinson's disease; Jordan's King Hussein is ill with cancer; Saudi Arabia's King Fahd is enfeebled; and Syria's Hafez Assad, 68, has heart trouble. Princes are set to take over Saudi Arabia and Jordan, but Syria and the Palestinians have no successors. Whoever they are, the concern is that the next generation may not be nimble or strong enough to keep the peace.